The average home with a heat pump pays €1,500–3,000 per year in heating electricity. Up to 30% of this amount can be saved — not by replacing the equipment, but by smartly controlling when and how it operates.
Why does your heat pump use more electricity than it should?
Most heat pump controllers operate on simple logic: they measure outdoor temperature and set water temperature based on fixed logic. This works, but the system doesn't know three crucial things:
- 1 Electricity prices change hourly. On the Nord Pool exchange, prices can range from €0.02 to €0.40/kWh in a single day. A standard controller doesn't know this.
- 2 Weather will change tomorrow. If you know the temperature will drop 10°C in 6 hours, you can start heating in advance — during cheaper electricity periods.
- 3 Wind and humidity affect efficiency. Strong wind increases building heat losses, while humidity + cold causes heat exchanger icing, reducing COP.
The result — the heat pump often works hardest when electricity is most expensive, and misses cheap periods for "reserve" heating.
3 optimization principles that save up to 30%
1. Heating planning based on electricity price
Nord Pool prices are known 12–36 hours in advance. A smart system analyzes upcoming prices and plans heating so that most energy is consumed during the cheapest periods.
Example:
Average daytime price — €0.12/kWh. Night period (23:00–06:00) — €0.05/kWh. During 7 cheap hours, the system heats more intensely (+2°C above setpoint), during the day — reduces heating. Result: same warmth, 15–20% lower bill.
2. Heating planning based on weather forecast
A standard controller reacts to current outdoor temperature. But a home's thermal inertia is significant: underfloor heating responds in 2–4 hours. This means the controller always overheats or under-heats.
A smart system uses a 48-hour weather forecast — temperature, wind speed, and humidity — to predict heating needs in advance:
- Temperature drop approaching → increase heating in advance (while electricity is still cheap)
- Warming up expected → reduce heating earlier (don't waste energy)
- Strong wind forecasted → compensate for increased heat losses
3. Domestic hot water scheduling based on usage patterns
Many heat pumps keep the DHW tank constantly at 50–55°C, even though hot water is only used in the morning and evening. This means the system continuously heats water that nobody will use.
A smart system:
- Learns when you use hot water (e.g. 7:00 AM and 7:00 PM)
- Heats the tank to the required temperature before usage peaks
- Aligns DHW heating with the cheapest electricity periods
Savings potential:
Hot water optimization alone saves 5–10% of total electricity costs. Combined with price-based heating planning — total savings reach 20–30%.
Real numbers: how much can you save?
Here are calculations for a 150 m² home with an air-to-water heat pump (10 kW):
| Parameter | Without optimization | With optimization |
|---|---|---|
| Annual electricity consumption | 6,500 kWh | 6,200 kWh |
| Average electricity price* | €0.14/kWh | €0.10/kWh |
| Annual bill | €910 | €620 |
| Annual savings | — | ~€290 (32%) |
* Average effective price — weighted by consumption at each hourly rate. Calculations based on 2025 Nord Pool LT zone prices.
How does it work in practice?
A control system (e.g. Termalis Control) acts as a smart intermediary between the heat pump and the energy market:
Collects Data
Nord Pool prices, weather forecast (temperature, wind, humidity), controller parameters
Calculates
Optimizes heating schedule based on price, heat demand, and building inertia
Controls
Plans work schedules, compressor power and DHW timing in real-time via Modbus TCP
Everything happens automatically — no manual settings or timers. The system learns from your home's characteristics and continuously improves its predictions.
What do you need to get started?
Optimization works with any heat pump that:
- Has a communication interface (most modern controllers)
- Is connected to the local network (Ethernet)
- Uses dynamic electricity pricing (Nord Pool / spot tariff)
If your heat pump meets these criteria — the optimization potential is significant, and the investment pays for itself within 1–2 heating seasons.
Summary
- Your heat pump can work smarter — by planning based on electricity price and weather forecast
- Realistic savings potential — 20–30% of annual electricity bill
- No need to replace the heat pump — just add a control system
- Hot water optimization — additional 5–10% savings